The Republican triumphs on Tuesday extended beyond Congress to victories in blue state governors’ races, and those successes could benefit New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the chairman of the Republican Governors Association and a potential presidential candidate in 2016.
But the gubernatorial wins, even while good news for possible candidates, probably say less about the mood of the voters than the results in Senate and House races. Whatever the reasons for the Congressional midterm rout — anger over gridlock in Washington, D.C., worries about the economy or dissatisfaction with the Obama administration — analysts say that voters are typically less ideological and more pragmatic when picking a governor.
"With senators, people often vote pure ideology," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "With governors, party and ideology play a big role but people evaluate candidates differently."
Voters want to be convinced that the candidates have the managerial skills to lead a state, he said.
"They really do look at them as their 'little president,'" he said.
On Tuesday, the GOP increased the number of governorships it holds from 29 to 31.
Republicans will replace Democrats in Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts and beat back opponents elsewhere, including Florida, Iowa, Maine, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin. In Texas, Republican state Attorney General Greg Abbott outpolled state Sen. Wendy Davis to replace outgoing Republican Gov. Rick Perry.
At the same time, Democrats held onto the office in Colorado and Connecticut and picked up Pennsylvania, where Democrat Tom Wolf beat Republican Gov. Tom Corbett.
Still undecided is the race in Vermont, where a strong challenge to Gov. Peter Shumlin by Scott Milne means the state's Legislature will decide the winner in January. Democrats control both houses, which have by tradition gone with the candidate with the most votes when no candidate received 50 percent of the vote. Shumlin maintains a small lead.
Also too close to call is Alaska where challenger Bill Walker, a Republican turned independent, has a slight lead over Republican Gov. Sean Parnell. Absentee and early votes must still be counted.
“It just seems like such a mixed bag of results,” said Dianne Bystrom, director of Iowa State University's Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics.
Some of the Republican wins might have been a result of a general mood of discontent, partly with the economy despite indications of improvements, she said.
“People aren’t feeling it in their heart and souls that things are getting any better and will be better,” she said. “So I think there’s just a general political malaise sort of sweeping the country, that they're just fed up."
Illinois’ race was largely about the economy, said Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor at The Cook Political Report. Gov. Pat Quinn’s attempted solution — one of the largest tax increases in the state’s history — was not successful and voters wanted a different approach, she said.
But Duffy attributed Democrats’ loss in the Massachusetts gubernatorial race to the lethargic effort by state Attorney General Martha Coakley after the primary. By contrast, Republican Charlie Baker had been campaigning since losing to Gov. Deval Patrick in 2010, she said.
“Governors’ races tend to exist in their own orbit,” Duffy said.
The most surprising race was in Maryland, where Republican businessman Larry Hogan defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, she and Sabato said.
“You figure in a state as overwhelmingly Democratic as Maryland the guy would be able to win,” Sabato said.
Kelly Dittmar, a scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University’s Eagleton Institute of Politics, said that the overall Republican success might be attributed to better mobilization of voters.
“Maybe that tells part of the story in some of these races,” she said.
As far as the number of women governors, the tally stayed the same at five, she said.
The Republican Governors Assocation outraised its Democratic counterpart by more than two-to-one, according to the latest tallies — $102 million by Christie compared to $47 million for the Democratic chairman, Shumlin.
The Republicans successes are a boost for Christie, who has now spent lots of time in states important for the 2016 presidential race, said Lee Miringoff, the director the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y. He criss-crossed the country for his fellow governors, visiting 37 states this year, some of them many times.
"When you’re out campaigning for president, you want a nice welcome mat from the sitting governor," he said.
Republicans hold Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan, all states Democrats would want to do well in, he said. Christie not only worked for the election of those governors, but also met other influential residents while visiting, Miringoff said.
And Tuesday's numbers helped to mute speculation that controversy over lane closures and subsequent traffic snarls on the George Washington Bridge — the so-called Bridgegate — had hurt Christie's effectiveness, he said.
"He's a big winner for Tuesday within the Republican party ranks should he decide to toss his proverbial hat in the ring," he said.
"He's done the introduction, now it will be reacquaint, not only the governor but I'm sure many of the folks he was at events with," he said. "In an earlier era, we would say he built a nice Rolodex."
Christie downplayed his role on the "Today" show, saying the credit belonged to the candidates. He told Matt Lauer on Wednesday that he had not decided whether to run for president.
"It's not about me," Christie said. "I was happy to help. I'm glad to have their confidence, but that’s all it is."
Besides the advantage for Christie's prospects, the results could also help Wisconsin’s Gov. Rick Scott and Ohio’s Gov. John Kasich, both of whom have been talked about as possible Republican candidates. Both were victorious Tuesday.
But on Democratic side, the loss in Maryland damaged former Gov. Martin O’Malley’s chance at his party’s nomination, Sabato said.
“He killed his candidacy for president, too,” Sabato said. “Nobody’s going to take that seriously now.”
Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, said the results affirmed Republican leadership even in the bluest of blue states.
"Even the president's home state, where he campaigned vigorously, elected a Republican, and that's how big this victory really is," he said at a news conference.
Photo Credit: NBCConnecticut.com
